Category: Featured Post

Foresight Gamification: Unlocking Futures Thinking through Play 

8th October 2024 by Alexandra Schlegel

In an era marked by rapid change and uncertainty, civil society organisations must proactively anticipate and prepare for diverse potential futures. Foresight practices help map these possibilities, allowing us to explore trends, opportunities, and risks. But how can we make this process not only effective but also engaging and accessible? The answer lies in gamification. 

 

What is Foresight Gamification?  

Gamification involves the integration of game elements and principles in non-game contexts. Within foresight, this means incorporating play into the typically strategic and analytical process of envisioning the future. This is achieved through structured, interactive games that encourage creativity, problem-solving, and collaboration.   

Foresight gamification transforms abstract concepts of the future into comprehensible ideas, making them easier to grasp and explore. Through game mechanics such as role-playing, storytelling, and competition, participants can immerse themselves in complex future environments, learning through play how these futures could unfold.

 

How Foresight Gamification Works in Practice 

At our recent Scanning the Horizon community session, facilitated by Shiela R Castillo, a foresight practitioner with a passion for the transformative power of cultural creatives and civil society, participants engaged with two notable foresight games:  

  • The Polak Game: This collaborative exercise invites participants to explore their beliefs about the future. Players position themselves on the game board based on whether they foresee a better or worse future than the present. They also reflect on their capacity to influence the future. This reflection prompts discussions about how personal assumptions about the future shape our current actions. 
  • The Thing from the Future: In this imaginative game, participants envision future artefacts based on specific prompts. For instance, players might describe an object from a century in the future that embodies “resentment” linked to “cloning.” This creative process encourages thinking beyond conventional boundaries, helping participants “create out-of-the-box ideas that might help them generate innovative solutions to potential future challenges.


The Benefits of Foresight Gamification 

  1. Enhanced engagement and participation

    While some individuals may feel hesitant to participate in serious games within a professional context, gamification invites active involvement. With an open mindset, participants often find themselves “in the flow,” gaining valuable insights from the experience. The dynamic and interactive nature of these games fosters an inclusive environment where individuals are more likely to engage deeply and collaboratively.

  2. Safe space for exploration

    Gamification creates a safe, judgement-free space where participants feel comfortable sharing ideas, even if they seem absurd or laughable. This freedom encourages risk-taking and innovation, which are essential for imagining unconventional futures. In a foresight game, there are no wrong answers – just different perspectives to explore.

     

  3. Making futures thinking accessible and inclusive

    By integrating gamified approaches, foresight practices become more accessible to diverse groups. Whether conducted online or in person, games like the Polak Game and The Thing from the Future, demonstrate that complex foresight concepts can be communicated in a simple and engaging way. Playing foresight games not only makes the experience of learning about futures more enjoyable but also helps participants think strategically about long-term challenges. For example, the Polak Game helps players position themselves on different future scenarios, while The Thing from the Future allows groups to brainstorm inventive possibilities based on prompts, such as “50 years from now” or “a century into the future”. Such games stimulate creativity and forward-thinking. Additionally, foresight games can be played by whole teams, with partners and diverse communities (such as children) that civil society organisations engage with.

     

  4. Customisable and adaptable

    Foresight games are far from trivial and can yield profound insights when applied to civil society work. By linking game learnings to their day-to-day and longer-term responsibilities, players can glean valuable insights that could support their work in addressing the world’s wicked problems. Importantly, foresight games are not one-size-fits-all; they can be tailored to meet the specific needs of an organisation, or the issues being explored. As Shiela R Castillo notes, there are “no hard and fast rules” in gamification. Game elements can be adjusted or modified to align better with participants’ objectives, making these tools both versatile and impactful in addressing real-world challenges.

     

The Value of Foresight Gamification 

Foresight gamification is emerging as a valuable resource for fostering a culture of foresight, particularly within international civil society organisations where long-term, creative thinking is essential. As more organisations embrace these playful methodologies, they are likely to discover that foresight games not only enhance their capacity for future-oriented thinking but also enrich the journey, making it more engaging, participatory, and enjoyable. 

In the words of Shiela R Castillo: “We should definitely play more. If play is work for children, social development professionals can make playing serious games part of work too”. Foresight, after all, is about imagining the unimaginable, and what better way to do that than through the lens of a game? 

With this spirit, we would like to invite you to start using foresight games within your organisations and work.  

If you would like to learn more on how you can use foresight in your work, immerse yourself with the tools of foresight integrated into the Justice Based Approach in United Edge’s Strategic Foreisght Workshop for Social Justice Leaders, facilitated by Shiela R Castillo and Daniel Bevan in November. 

Alexandra Schlegel

Programme and Events Officer

International Civil Society Centre

Alexandra joined the Centre in January 2022. Her background is in Political Science and International Relations. She holds a MA in International Relations from Leiden University in the Netherlands next to her BA in Political Science and History from the University of Tübingen, Germany. In her master thesis, Alexandra wrote about the humanitarian impacts of migration agreements. During her studies, she was strongly engaged in voluntary work with different international organisations. She has lived in Germany, the UK, the Netherlands as well as Jordan and is currently living in Berlin.

The Ambivalences of Power Shift 

2nd October 2024 by Wolfgang Jamann

Power shift, localisation, locally led, and globally connected are just a few terms that try to catch the characteristics of the debate around the future of civil society organisations, particularly international ones. Sometimes dubbed as the ‘industrial aid complex that needs to be overcome’, ICSOs are increasingly looking at a transfer of decision-making power to entities or partners in the Global South, while trying to determine their own future roles. A lot of transformation is already happening in the sector, and the discussions have moved from the ‘why’ to the ‘how’ and the ‘what does it take’. 

Since 2018, the International Civil Society Centre (ICSC) accompanies power shift processes of ICSOs through so-called ‘governance labs’, where progress and challenges are addressed through mutual learning and exchange, and where best practices and failures are discussed alike. 

Each lab has a particular focus. This year we met in Thiès, Dakar, hosted by the Senegalese NGO Tostan in their Training Centre, to concentrate on the interplay of power shift with the shrinking of operating space for civil society. The underlying question was, how far can power imbalances and the desire to shift power be instrumentalised by those who want to weaken civil society, particularly in authoritarian environments. And how do we stay true to our ambitions to localise social justice work but actively address its dangers? 

A worldwide wave of nationalism is visible throughout the over 40 national elections happening in 2024. International solidarity is deprioritised in many rich societies, and liberal democracy and the role of organised civil society are actively undermined by anti-rights groups and oppressive regimes. International and local CSOs are under direct attack, the former being accused as ‘foreign agents’, the latter as Trojan horses promoting non-traditional values. In such times, the shift of decision-making powers comes with ambivalences, potentially feeding into nationalist, anti-liberal agendas. 

This year’s Power Shift Lab was the second that was held in the Global South, after the 2023 Nairobi event. It was a welcome opportunity to enrich discussions in the sector from the perspective of local communities and partner organisations of ICSOs. Reflections around the impact of shrinking space were candid and open and showed the willingness to get it right rather than moving fast. While we are looking at a new sharing of responsibilities, we need to be clear about risk sharing, new types of accountabilities, and an increased sense of solidarity between different civil society actors vis-à-vis those who try to divide and undermine us.  

Key Takeaways from the Power Shift Lab and What Leaders Are Saying:

ICSC’s Power Shift Lab in Senegal helped us as leaders within the civil society community to reflect on the intersection of governance transformation and shrinking civic space, delving into how such transformations challenge yet drive change within a complex organisation and evolving sector.  Making space to reflect on our goals and hopes for long term power shifting allowed me to think about Plan’s role as a leader in supporting girls rights and girls in crisis.  How might we consider more emphasis on governance actions that we can commit to today that can build momentum from within, ensure we approach a community–driven approach to changes in our governance, look to external partners and peers for support, and, as always, ensure our governance centres the representation and needs of young people.  I also walked away with incredible learning from peer organisations – who had boldly embraced change in terms of operating models, global pay equity, decentralised headquarters, and pursuing outside culture checks – to help ensure accountability. Thank you for the space to think about ways to move forward, to do things differently, and to leave with even better relationships with fellow colleagues and champions. 

Kathleen Sherwin, Chief Strategy & Engagement Officer (and External Representative)
Plan International 

My key insights from the Power Shift Lab were that considerable governance changes are happening across the sector, with many ICSOs not only acknowledging existing power imbalances within our organisations and with our partners and communities, but also the shared commitment to implementing and learning from new pathways to sharing agency and power, both internally and externally. While acknowledging the progress made so far, we must continue to explore new pathways towards more equitable partnerships, where local and national organisations take the lead wherever possible; meaningful involvement of diverse underserved and under-represented constituents in governance (children, people who are differently abled, youth, marginalised, etc.). We must also forward redressing institutional and financial hurdles (including donor policies and practices) by strengthening advocacy for systemic change across the humanitarian and development ecosystem. While we have focused largely on formal power in governance transformations, we hardly pay equal attention to informal sources of power and their implications for the power shift and the intersection of governance transformation and civic space. It is therefore important for us to take a critical look at our internal cultures and the external environment/cultures of the societies where we operate to determine how best to centre informal power and intentionally blend both formal and informal powers for fit-for-purpose governance frameworks and organisational strategy.  

Mohammed-Anwar Sadat Adam, Programs and Policy Influencing Lead,
Oxfam in Ghana 

I had the privilege of attending the Power Shift Lab together with eighteen dynamic representatives of civil society organisations. I was puzzled by the topic and approached the lab with an open-mind and with curiosity, ready to listen, understand, and share. During these three days, led by Wolfgang and Myriam, we asked relevant questions about the future of the sector, and we managed, as a group, to picture different roles for the future of ICSOs. It was an insightful journey, enriched by the different backgrounds and levels of responsibility of the participants. In my opinion, the key word behind the power shift is changes. Changes with big C, as these would include multiple layers, some of those needing to happen at individual level, some others at organisational-governance level, and others again at systemic level. Exploring the power dynamics, understanding the trends of the sector – and of society as a whole – and the related obstacles, allowed me to better recognise my leverages for a change. It is a process, we need to play the long game, learning how to really put the communities we work with at the centre of our actions, learning how to remain relevant while the civic space is shrinking. 

Francesco De Pasquale, Mali Country Director,
Welthungerhilfe 

Attending the ICSC Power Shift Lab was a very rewarding experience for me. It was my first time, and I found it incredibly insightful and enriching both personally and professionally. Reflecting on my own organisation’s journey and learning from others was a real eye-opener. The sessions, presentations, and discussions with a diverse group gave me solid insights into the concept of power shift and boosted my confidence to drive positive change in my organisation. One key takeaway for me is that every organisation’s path to power shift is unique, with its own milestones and success indicators. I highly recommend anyone in the development or humanitarian sector to join these labs and dive into the discussions on accelerating inclusive power shift. 

Papa Diouf, Global Practice Area Lead for Health,
VSO International 

The diversity of people, organisations, and perspectives was again the key success factor for advancing our common ambition – to become more participatory, legitimate, and locally-led, while at the same time addressing practical and political obstacles in a collaborative way. This enables collective learning and sets a sign against isolationism.  

Where do we go from here? The next step is to commit to action. Whether it’s rethinking governance models, addressing informal power structures, or actively advocating for systemic change within donor policies, ICSOs must push the envelope. As we look ahead to 2024 and beyond, let’s ensure that our efforts to shift power are not only transformative but also resilient in the face of external threats. 

Wolfgang Jamann

Executive Director

International Civil Society Centre

Dr. Wolfgang Jamann is Executive Director of the International Civil Society Centre. Until January 2018 he was Secretary General and CEO of CARE International (Geneva). Before that he led NGO Deutsche Welthungerhilfe and the Alliance 2015, a partnership of 7 European aid organisations. From 2004-2009 he was CEO & Board member of CARE Deutschland-Luxemburg and President of the CARE Foundation. Previously, he worked for World Vision International as a regional representative in East Africa (Kenya) & Head of Humanitarian Assistance at WV Germany. After his Ph.D. dissertation in 1990 he started his career in development work at the German Foundation for International Development, later for the UNDP in Zambia. As a researcher and academic, he has published books and articles on East & Southeast Asia contributing to international studies on complex humanitarian emergencies and conflict management.

Navigating the Digital Frontier: Karl Steinacker’s Insights on the Digitalisation

19th June 2024 by Karl Steinacker

Within the sector, the International Civil Society Centre (the Centre) is neither vanguard nor laggard when it comes to digitalisation. The Centre acknowledges there is room for improvement in its digital performance. However, from a modest and realistic perspective, its achievements are remarkable and offer valuable insights for others in the sector. 

Practical Steps Towards Digital Transformation

When the French rock band Feu! Chatterton sings about the new world (Nouveau Monde), it concludes that despite the fact that while we all want it, achievements are, as they put it, zero, and continues: ‘catch the Bluetooth’. Feu’s view that we are driven by, rather than drivers of, digital transformation should not be taken as a factual statement but as an incentive to do better. 

Over the years, the Centre has introduced remote work, moved its IT to the cloud, and set up a media studio to support live streams and many online events. This followed an inductive approach and came about without grand design. Questions about off-the-shelf products vs. open-source and non-proprietary software were handled practically (often in favour of the former) and not ideologically. Cybersecurity, an often-overlooked risk in civil society organisations, was outsourced to cloud-based business partners. When running an organisation committed to social justice on small budgets, pragmatic decisions and cost-efficient software are often utilized. 

Reinventing Convening in the Digital Age

In the first quarter of the 21st century, CSOs must navigate the digital sphere. For a long time, convening was no longer meant to reserve conference facilities or arrange for cookies during coffee breaks. Be it the Centre’s annual Global Perspectives, open to everybody, or the Vision Works and Leading Together events for CEOs and senior CSO staff to discuss key strategic issues, best practices, and opportunities for joint action online as well as offline.  

And when the Solidarity Action Network is addressing civic space restrictions, it looks as much at cyberspace as any other operating condition CSOs may face. Likewise, the Leave No One Behind Partnership, hosted by the Centre delivers practical solutions so that marginalised communities no longer remain invisible to official statistics. Here again, the relevance of the project is linked to its successful delivery of digital solutions. The Accelerating Inclusive Power Shift project would be futile if it did not address access to technology as a determining power factor. 

Collaborations and Global Engagement

For three years, the Centre, jointly with CivicTech Africa, has been organising a monthly online panel discussion known as Digital Dialogues to bring relevant issues on digital technology to the civil society sector. On each occasion, eminent speakers, both from the Global North and the Global South, are invited to discuss the ongoing digital transformation from a civil society perspective. The variety of topics covered in more than 30 panels is incredibly varied, encompassing cyber mediation, digital colonialism, hacking for good, and others. The Digital Dialogues panel discussion on diversity led the Centre to upgrade its websites and introduce international sign language and captions to be as inclusive as possible for audiences. 

While the Centre is seen as a major convener, bringing together traditional social justice actors and with a newly set-up digital focus, it also contributes to the wider efforts within the civil society sector. In 2023, the NetHope Global Summit provided an opportunity for an in-person experience in Munich (Germany) and virtual gatherings, which the Centre was happy to contribute to. We led sessions across time zones, fostering ideas to link social justice, collaboration, and technological innovation. We also provided an Executive Leaders’ forum, co-hosted by the ICSC and NetHope, on how artificial intelligence is affecting the work of civil society. 

The Intersection of Technology and Human Behaviour

Members of CSOs and the non-profit sector met representatives of tech companies in order to exchange ideas and reflect on innovative ways forward for the benefit of the humanitarian, conservation, and development sectors. While there is no doubt that technology matters, the workshop What Next for Mis-, Dis-, and Malinformation in a “Post Truth” World? looked in particular at the interplay of technology and human behaviour. The virtual workshop Supporting and Surveilling the Deserving Poor not only provided a historic tour d’horizon of social welfare programmes but also reviewed the ongoing digital transformation of welfare in places as different as India and Denmark. It also explored the potential of unconditional basic income in Finland. 

Sustainability and Digital Development

In an era defined by rapid technological advancement and growing environmental concerns, the need for a more sustainable approach to digital development has never been greater. Hence, there is a need to explore important theories such as the Digital Doughnut. However, only time and further consideration will tell if they provide the answers we are looking for. 

The Need for Continuous Digital Integration

So, our digital journey goes on. As long as CSOs continue to work on relevant issues of social justice, addressing the effects of the ongoing digital transformation will remain inevitable, and many CSOs have integrated digital issues into their overall strategies and programmes and with current advancements in digital technology, this is now more important than ever.  

Artists inspire us. That is why we love them. The Austrian pop band Yukno offers their outlook on the Digital Playground and sings: I will reinvent myself; I will never be alone again! It’s on this positive note that we wish to end this tour d’horizon with the renewed understanding that civil society needs ‘The Digital’ to make our world a better place! 

Karl Steinacker

Digital Advisor

International Civil Society Centre

Karl Steinacker is currently the Digital Advisor of the International Civil Society Centre. He studied political science at the Free University of Berlin and international law at Cambridge University. He then spent three decades working for the United Nations (UNDP, UNRWA, DPKO, UNHCR) in the fields of development, peacekeeping and refugee protection. At the UN Refugee Agency, he held positions in Africa and at its Headquarters and was responsible for Registration, Statistics, and Data and Identity Management as well as for Camp Coordination/Camp Management.

Decolonising mindsets and language: Reflections from the #ShiftthePower Summit

19th March 2024 by Myriam Ciza Gambini

At the end of last year, I had the chance to participate in the #Shift the Power Summit in Bogotá, organised by the Global Fund for Community Foundations and TerritoriA, which gave me, and the International Civil Society Centre further resolve in supporting ICSOs in their power shift journey. The Summit gathered over 700 participants from over 70 countries to discuss how to work together to truly shift power and overcome the blockages that prevent a truly systemic change of the system, moving away from top-heavy and top-down systems of international development and philanthropy. 

While in recent years the debates around shifting power, localisation and decolonisation within the civil society sector have gained prominence, resulting in an increasing number of actors seeking to foster a paradigm shift, the challenges to dismantle and readdress power, roles and responsibilities remain significant. 

The Summit was a pivotal event that saw activists, national and international organisations and funders, convene in agreement that the current development and philanthropy systems are not fit for purpose but require a radical restructuring of their architecture. 

Shift the Power Stage in Bogotá, Columbia 2023
Shift the Power Stage in Bogotá, Columbia 2023

As Marie-Rose Romain Murphy of the Haiti Community Foundation, poignantly said in her address:

“Communities have been historically marginalised in the development process by governments and NGOs. Shifting power means recognising that local communities hold the solutions.” 

During the conference, communities and practitioners who have been historically disenfranchised were front and centre. Throughout the discussions and sessions, we reflected on how as actors we can foster an enabling environment for change, avoiding window dressing and empty commitments. 

In order for significant shifts to happen it is pivotal for organisations to re-examine their assumptions regarding where they stand in the sector. Developing self-awareness and defusing power dynamics within an organisation is helpful in ensuring that partnerships are genuine, built on trust, and free from exploitative practices. For international civil society organisations (ICSOs) changing the system entails not giving away power entirely, but rather engaging with it to progressively shift it to communities we aim to serve.  

A key question that was discussed during the Summit was: Beside shifting power as a moral imperative, what does it mean for development and philanthropy actors to address the problem of power inequities? 

Since 2018, the International Civil Society Centre’s Power Shift Labs have addressed the problem of power imbalances between Northern and Southern, but also between large and small, rich and resource-scarce entities of ICSOs. During the Labs, ICSO leaders explored the questions of how to overcome barriers and lead the necessary transformational power shifts in governance. Our goal is to prioritise the perspectives of the communities we serve by facilitating the exchange of lessons learned while supporting organisations in re-evaluating how they add value to a system that is infused with a colonial mindset.

Graphic Recording at Shift the Power Summit 2023

The Summit highlighted that the challenging and dismantling structures that perpetuate power imbalances is paramount to define the legitimacy of ICSOs in the civil society ecosystem. 

Here are some of the reflections from the Summit on how organisations can start addressing power imbalances: 

Power Shift cannot happen without mindset change 

At the Summit, there were several discussions around the idea that before shifting power we need to shift culture and mindsets, and that requires individual reflections. Most dimensions that contribute to unequal decision making can be interpreted through an intersectional lens. To fight such inequalities, organisations should commit to identifying and eradicating the negative power dimensions that allowed such decision-making structures to develop and foster. Power imbalances are recognised as being not only an issue between Global North and South, but also across Southern, patriarchal power dimensions. All individuals working in the sector ought to ask themselves; how do you use power responsibly once you have it? How can we use our positionality and power to influence the sector to do better? 

Concrete change requires strong sponsorship 

In many organisations, there is a public commitment to being less colonial at internal and structural level and more conscious of power imbalances. While at macro-level, there is widespread agreement on the need to change and on such intent, there is a lack of vision of how to achieve change in the short-term, resulting in lack of consistent progress. In fact, while at a personal level, decision-makers might want to be de-colonial, they often struggle to transfer such commitment to the policy and strategy level. Finding sponsors for change within the organisation is crucial to implement such theoretical commitments and move from policy to concrete action. 

There is a wealth of power in language and communication 

The use of empowering language is a key tool to establish genuine and more equitable partnerships with communities, moving away from bureaucracy and flawed impact measurement to shared values and empathy for each other’s needs. Reflecting and being intentional about language also requires avoiding the co-option of the language of liberation, that radical groups have used to address the need to overhaul the system. Furthermore, while most organisations agree that decision-making should be moved to the closest point of impact, efforts to prioritise such commitments should be communicated better, creating safe spaces for critical and thought-provoking discussions.  

We look forward to exchanging with organisations that endeavour to embrace this transformative mission despite the challenges. One of our key avenues to build momentum is the Power Shift Lab, which serves as a dedicated platform for a comprehensive review and assessment of the intricate interplay between power dynamics, organisational intent, and governance reform. This year’s Power Shift Lab, taking place on 10-12 June 2024 in Senegal in collaboration with Tostan, will focus on the intersection of governance transformations and shrinking civic space, delving into how such transformations affect local civil society. Connecting with local initiatives, we will further assess how to develop governance frameworks that facilitate the empowerment of local decision-makers in strategy, with the aim to dismantle the top-down decision-making structures that still pervade the sector.  

If you are interested in participating in the event, want to find out more or keep up to date with our Accelerating Inclusive Power Shift initiative, sign up for our newsletter or reach out to Myriam Ciza Gambini, directly at mcgambini@icscentre.org

 

Myriam Ciza Gambini

Project Manager

International Civil Society Centre

Myriam coordinates the “Accelerating Inclusive Power Shift” project, which aims to foster equitable partnerships and more inclusive governance models in the development and humanitarian sectors. Prior to joining the Centre, she worked on EU development policy in Brussels for CONCORD and Humanity & Inclusion and with CBM in Italy.

Scanning the Horizon: Digital Doughnut

11th March 2024 by Rachel Wilkinson

Every year, institutions release their trend reports. Recently, the World Economic Forum identified four different environmental issues as the most significant risks facing the world in the next 10 years. The UNDP Trends Report cites four climate-related trends in its top 13 themes. However, we know climate change is not merely a future trend, we are already feeling the damaging effects of climate change. February 2024 was globally the warmest on record. 

The Scanning the Horizon Community, hosted by the International Civil Society Centre, investigates trends and signals affecting civil society and looks to apply this learning and approach to Civil Society Organisations. At the start of the year, the Scanning Community met to examine and explore those areas where digital technology and the environment converge. 

We delved into a thought-provoking workshop to understand the intricate relationship between digital technologies and sustainability. Taking the Doughnut Economic Model – a framework, developed by Kate Raworth, that challenges traditional notions of economic success and sustainability, –  we were able to use the ‘Digital Doughnut’, a visual tool that helped us explore the nuances of our digital footprint.  

The Doughnut Economic Model offers a holistic approach to sustainable development. It visualises a “safe and just space for humanity,” represented by the area between the inner and outer rings of the doughnut. The inner ring denotes the minimum standards of well-being that every person should have access to, as outlined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Meanwhile, the outer ring represents the planetary boundaries we must not exceed to safeguard the health of our planet. 

Doughnut Economics
Doughnut Economics

This model prompts us to consider not only the immediate impacts of our actions but also their long-term consequences on both people and the planet. By framing sustainability within this broader context, we are compelled to think beyond mere environmental conservation and examine the systemic issues at play. 

The intersection of technology and sustainability is a pressing issue in today’s world. While technological advancements offer huge benefits, they also pose significant challenges to our environment and society. From the proliferation of electronic waste to the energy-intensive nature of digital infrastructure, the digital sector has a substantial ecological footprint. We do not always think about the physical and environmental infrastructure of digital technology. Cloud technology, for example, requires a significant amount of energy and waste. A Google data centre uses 450,000 litres of water per day.  Training a single AI model can emit as much carbon as five cars in their lifetimes. There is often a hidden environmental cost to all this new technology. 

The ‘Digital Doughnut’ takes the doughnut economy and uses the model to assess digital technologies. During our workshop, led by Alistair Alexander, participants examined the global impact of digital technologies and their implications for planetary health. We explored pressing topics like disinformation, e-waste, and energy consumption, shedding light on the multifaceted challenges we face. 

In an era defined by rapid technological advancement and growing environmental concerns, the need for a more sustainable approach to digital development has never been greater. When we talk about sustainability in the tech realm, it is easy to focus solely on surface-level solutions like renewable energy and recycling. While these are crucial steps, we must not lose sight of the deeper questions. What are the underlying paradigms and systems driving climate change? How is digital technology contributing to this crisis and what fundamental changes are needed? 

You can find out more about the Digital Doughnut here: https://doughnuteconomics.org/ and here: https://reclaimed.systems/The-Digital-Doughnut or contact Alistair directly. 

At the heart of our efforts with Scanning the Horizon is collaboration with our members and partners to bolster future literacy within the sector. We are actively engaged in charting and anticipating emerging trends.

Our Scanning the Horizon Community unites professionals from diverse sectors to share knowledge, and expertise, and test novel methodologies. Please email us if your organisation is interested in gaining more insight into our community as part of its foresight work. We look forward to hearing from you. 

Rachel Wilkinson

Programme Manager – Futures and Innovation

International Civil Society Centre

Rachel leads the Futures and Innovation programme at the Centre. She is responsible for managing the portfolio of projects and events as well as leading and developing the Scanning the Horizon strategic peer learning platform. Rachel has more than 15 years of experience working in the third sector, on a national and international level, working for various ICSOs in international development and human rights in both London and Berlin.

Anticipate, Adapt, Act: Shaping a resilient future for civil society

13th February 2024 by Mareyah Bhatti, Eva Gondor, Patricia Mugenzi

It is widely understood that the civil society sector faces undue restrictions and threats to its operating space globally. To help strengthen the capacity of civil society actors, we need to develop the ability to anticipate the future and act in a proactive manner to shape the future. The International Civil Society Centre and Forum for the Future recently collaborated on this issue at the International Civic Forum (ICF) 2023, a two-day workshop in Brussels joined by 40 actors from across the civil society sector. 

 

 

How do civil society organisations (CSOs) accustomed to fire-fighting crises imagine more adaptative and agile ways of preparedness and planning?

In mid-2023, we joined efforts to design a replicable methodology that offered a creative and engaging way to use future stories and scenarios leading to 2034. The purpose of this was to help CSOs design current and future strategic plans and inform their practices. The objectives offered participants a way to explore a range of possible futures and identify potential action areas to navigate those varied futures on three distinct levels: as individuals, organisations, and as a sector. We hoped to use the ICF 2023 to test the methodology and receive feedback on how it can be developed to support future planning for CSOs. 

The sessions took the attendees on a journey… first immersing them in the present and exploring current trends, then travelling to alternative possible futures based on the set of trends, and finally bridging the gap between possible futures and their actions, resources and mindsets. While the workshop surfaced several sectoral actions, the sessions were designed to ensure a focus on the attendees present and their specific agency and role in driving the change needed.

How could they as individuals in their respective roles contribute to their organisation’s resilience? And how could their organisation work with others to reduce sector-wide vulnerability? 

We designed the sessions to be generative spaces that led the group to bring their experience and expertise while stretching beyond what exists in the present and imagining more ambitious (yet tangible) actions for possible futures. 

“As CSOs, we need to get used to ‘futurising’ as this informs current actions and helps us to avoid ‘routinising’.” ICF participant

 

The participants produced a range of ideas at the sectoral, organisational, and individual levels that we summarised below:

Sector-wide actions

  1. We need to empower and involve local communities

Anticipation is about participation and if we want to build a better future, we need to listen to local communities, invest in community relations, and change approaches to collaboration. Local partners need to be involved from the beginning of processes; communities need to be turned into co-investors and co-designers rather than receivers. 

  1. The language we use needs to shift to remove barriers to involvement

As raised by a participant and echoed by many around the room, the language around development is “colonial-centric”. It is often in English, French, or Spanish and filled with jargon that can be difficult to interact with. How can we expect to involve people in decision-making and hear their voices, if the language or medium of conduct is inherently exclusionary? For communities – and the youth in particular – to be deeply involved, we need to think about access to such spaces and especially the language we use.

  1. We need to apply a more holistic approach and deepen collaboration on intersectional problems

The challenges we face in the civil society sector are complex and interconnected, and therefore require intersectional approaches. Rather than approaching challenges in isolation, we can use a similar concept to the “whole child approach” or “one health approach” to recognise intersectional identities, needs, and experience.

  1. We need to craft futures across the civil society sector and together with other sectors

Foresight needs to be ‘humanised’ and made approachable. It was viewed by many as a key skill to prepare for the future, and therefore needs to be done by a wider range of stakeholders. Thinking about the future is inherently a human act. Instead of approaching uncertainty with the usual sense of fear, foresight allows us to plan and stress test approaches against potential futures in a more informed manner. 

“The process led to some ‘aha’ moments for me which will have a significant impact on my planning.” ICF participant

Organisational actions

The participants worked in pairs or peer groups to draft tangible organisational plans they can contribute to. The ideas revolved around two aspects:

  • Strengthening participation and inclusiveness in decision-making processes International and local CSOs need to invest more into co-creation, reflection, and exploration of alternatives with partners and communities.
  • Building foresight capacities and applying foresight within organisational activities
    The participants left motivated to involve their colleagues, partners, and allies in further collaborative foresight processes and exercises.

Individual actions

Building foresight capacities and their application were further underlined in concrete individual actions that the participants expressed their interest in developing such as:

  • Promoting and prioritizing knowledge sharing about foresight to broaden perspectives
  • Planning a foresight exercise for colleagues to strengthen organisational capacities 
  • Integrating futures thinking into existing processes and upcoming strategies

The individual actions identified during the ICF 2023 underscore the importance of fostering foresight at multiple levels — empowering local communities, shifting organisational language, and humanizing foresight for broader stakeholder engagement to ensure plans, projects, and strategies reflect our hopes for the future.

“Futures thinking is a systemic process and should be given due attention.”

 

So, what does this mean? 

Being a systemic process, futures thinking should be approached comprehensively, considering all interconnected aspects. In essence, it means recognising the need for a thorough strategy when addressing global challenges in the civil society sector. By practicing futures thinking, we take a proactive stance in tackling the complex issues faced by the sector, while fostering resilience, collaboration, and inclusivity. It is about developing the capacity to not only monitor trends but also to envision, through a participatory approach, how they might unfold providing us with a powerful tool to break away from conventional crisis management practices. Futures thinking urges us to be strategic, forward-looking, and adaptable in our approach, ensuring a more effective response to the evolving landscape of the civil society sector. 

 

Find out more 

The ICF 2023 was part of a wider three-year initiative “Anticipating futures for civil society operating space” (2022 – 2025) led by the International Civil Society Centre. The initiative aims to strengthen anticipatory capacities and future readiness of civil society professionals who are working to defend and expand civic and civil society operating space. Check out this website to find further information and resources from this initiative and possibilities of involvement. 

 

Mareyah Bhatti

Change Designer

Forum for the Future

Mareyah is a Change Designer at Forum for the Future, with an academic background in medical geography and personal passion for food systems and their cultural significance. She works closely in the Food and Futures teams at Forum, managing and delivering their programmes. She was recently seconded to Singapore for the 'Protein Challenge Southeast Asia,' a runner-up for the esteemed Food Planet Prize. Beyond this, Mareyah contributes to Forum’s Future Centre platform as an editor, identifying emerging signals and authoring blogs on topics from the future of protein to human rights in the fashion supply chain.

Eva Gondor

Senior Project Manager

International Civil Society Centre

Eva leads on the Centre's civic space work - the Solidarity Action Network (SANE) aimed at strengthening resilience of and solidarity among civil society actors, and the International Civic Forum (ICF), our annual civic space platform to network and identify opportunities for collaboration. Prior to joining the Centre she worked at the Robert Bosch Stiftung (Foundation) in Stuttgart where she managed the foundation’s projects focusing on civil society and governance in Turkey, the Western Balkans, and North Africa.

Patricia Mugenzi

Strategic Foresight

International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC)

Patricia is the coordinator for Strategic foresight (Africa Region) at the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC). She helps IFRC’s National societies explore possible futures to address upcoming challenges. Before joining the IFRC, Patricia served in various positions in both international and governmental organisations, including the Government of Quebec. In this role, she provided invaluable insights and guidance on geopolitical matters, playing a pivotal role in shaping government policies and strategies.

Envisioning Tomorrow: Reflections from the International Civic Forum 2023 

23rd January 2024 by Elizabeth Parsons

The stage was set for the International Civic Forum (ICF) before the end of 2023 in the vibrant and creative innovation space of Transforma Lab, Brussels. For two days, a workshop with forty participants from around the globe was held with the aim of preparing them, their civil society organisations, and the civil society sector at large for anticipating futures. This is by no means an easy feat, but we were fortunate to hear how it played out for three participants: Patrick Allam, the Legal Officer from Spaces for Change, Melissa Juisi Simo, the West Africa Civil Society Institute’s (WACSI) Programmes Assistant, and Răzvan-Victor Sassu, the Head of Strategy and Policy for the World YMCA. In the interviews, they shared with us their thoughts about foresight and futures crafting and their takeaways from the experience.  

Regarding “futures” work, what has been your connection? 

Before attending the ICF 2023, all three interviewees had varied connections to futures work. As Melissa noted, most civil society organisations are essentially in “reaction mode.” Although her organisation has begun pursuing futures work, it is still a new area for her personally to explore. Prior to taking part in the ParEvo foresight exercise run by the ICSCentre in the first half of 2023, Patrick hadn’t work with it before. ParEvo is a participatory and evolutionary approach to creating stories about possible futures. In the exercise, 15 participants developed stories about possible civic space futures through eight iterations of storytelling. Patrick began the exercise with a great deal of scepticism and uncertainty about the future. But later on:

“I now recognize the role that we can play in ensuring that the future is one that we can actively govern and possibly shape its outcomes.” Patrick

Patrick Allam, the Legal Officer from Spaces for Change
Patrick Allam, the Legal Officer from Spaces for Change

Through this work, he started to see potential for a more positive future. On the other hand, for Răzvan, it is a daily reality to acknowledge the importance of foresight in the development of global strategy and policy. Futures thinking had already been incorporated into Răzvan’s strategic processes, but he pointed out that:

“We also want to try to expand the network of people who actually think futures thinking is important. We don’t want it to remain limited to a bubble in Geneva who finds it significant.”  Răzvan

Răzvan-Victor Sassu, the Head of Strategy and Policy for the World YMCA
Răzvan-Victor Sassu, the Head of Strategy and Policy for the World YMCA

The three participants all agree on the importance of futures thinking, despite having varying degrees of experience with it.

“We need futures if we want to lead the future that we are going into, if we want to see innovation, and if we want to see participation.” Melissa

How can we go about futures thinking? 

Melissa compares futures thinking to a daily task, something one will do daily to ensure longevity, efficiency and optimal productivity. She thinks that this strategy will promote creativity and teamwork – all of which are crucial for imagining the future. When talking about the strategy of his organisation, Răzvan brings up the creation of a think tank to facilitate strategic foresight, especially with regard to the needs of young people. He highlights the challenges of prioritising future thinking amidst ongoing crises and funding constraints, suggesting the integration of bite-sized future thinking activities into existing processes. Patrick emphasises the value of systematic future planning, not only within his organisation but also extending to their networks, having been influenced by his ICF experience. In his view, this is a means of being proactive as opposed to reactive, working towards a situation in which upcoming events won’t come as a surprise. 

Did you have any “aha” moments at the ICF? 

“Where can we make a difference now that will make a difference in the future?” is a quote that motivated Melissa.

“How am I making a difference now for the future and not just making a difference now to correct the past? Because that has been the pattern.” Melissa

Melissa Juisi Simo, the West Africa Civil Society Institute's (WACSI) Programmes Assistant
Melissa Juisi Simo, the West Africa Civil Society Institute’s (WACSI) Programmes Assistant

Melissa further underlined: “It was so beautiful for me to see that although we’re different groups from different parts of the world, we’re able to see similar risks and opportunities available for civil society.” But at the same time, she reflected that if there is too much alignment in thinking and we only stay within civil society, this might lead to the omission of some crucial perspectives. There is a need for increased cooperation between civil society and other sectors, including the government and business when it comes to shaping the future. Răzvan’s eureka moment centred on the notion that the workshop simplified the idea of “futures literacy” for those who are unfamiliar with it. He can imagine that creating a simple “package” for organisations would be helpful. Patrick’s realisation was that:

“Instead of finding ourselves in the future, where we are in the vicious circle of always reacting to issues as they come up, the goal is that everyone of us will move to the mode where we are actively shaping our future.” Patrick

He adds that this approach shouldn’t be only applied when it comes to organisational strategy but also for funding and community involvement.  

International Civic Forum 2023 Group Photo
International Civic Forum 2023 Group Photo

What will you do with the insights from the ICF? 

Melissa, Patrick, and Răzvan talked about how they wanted to incorporate futures thinking into their work going forward. Melissa intends to absorb the information and share it with others through an article that can be used as a reference. Her second ambition is to develop a curriculum or a learning material to share with other civil society organisations to strengthen their capacities. Patrick is eager to implement a more methodical approach to integrating foresight into the institutional thinking of his organisation and expanding it to their network. Răzvan advocates for the inclusion of strategic foresight as a fundamental component of strategic planning and proposes incorporating futures thinking and methods into routine meetings, such as a staff retreat. 

Throughout the interviews, Melissa, Patrick, and Răzvan highlighted the growing significance of foresight and anticipation for civil society. They further emphasised the need for taking an integrated approach to futures thinking and making it a regular practice. The perspectives and experiences that they have shared serve as a reminder of the complexity of the issue, the opportunity it presents, and the teamwork needed to address it.

International Civic Forum 2023
International Civic Forum 2023
International Civic Forum 2023
International Civic Forum 2023 where forty civil society professionals met to workshop on anticipating futures.

If you’re interested in learning more about this topic, check out Anticipating futures for civil society operating space – Solidarity Action Network (SANE). The International Civil Society Centre’s three-year initiative (2022 – 2025) focussing on strengthening anticipatory capacities and future readiness of civil society professionals who are working to defend and expand civic and civil society operating space. The ICF methodology was co-developed by the ICSCentre and Forum for the Future, with support of Patricia Mugenzi.

Communications Manager

International Civil Society Centre

Global Perspectives 2023 – Moments of Truth 

22nd November 2023 by Miriam Niehaus

Prolonged humanitarian crises, the rise of generative artificial intelligence, the use of disinformation to polarise societies and manipulate elections, the suppression of civil society from state and non-state actors and decreasing funding… are just a few of the ever-growing challenges that social justice, humanitarian, and development organisations must contend with. As progressive and rights-based civil society organisations – from local to international level – are grappling with these crises of the past few years, the International Civil Society Centre once again had the honour of curating our yearly conference, Global Perspectives on these topics. “Global Perspectives – Moments of Truth” happened on 9 November and brought together hundreds of online participants across five different sessions to not just ponder these challenges but provide concrete examples and explore ideas on how we can collaboratively tackle them.  

Though each session was independently curated, three overarching themes emerged. 

The Future of Civic Space is Now
Anticipating the factors that will constrict our civic space a decade from now demands our attention today. Civic Space has been in decline and is likely to continue on this trajectory. Are we adequately addressing the issues that will likely shape our societies in the next decade, impacting our civic engagement? In the session titled “Learn From and Engage on Futures Scenarios for Civic Space” participants learned about the outcomes of the Centre’s “A History of Civic Space 2024-2034”, exercise, where representatives from 15 civil society organisations collaborated to develop possible future scenarios for civic space. Session participants engaged in the scenarios and identified actionable steps to either advance or prevent undesirable outcomes. For example, a likely scenario of artificial intelligence (AI) first enabling a lot of good work at scale and then backfiring on civil society as “obstacles to progress”, highlighted the urgency to get into the AI game now. Later in the day at the “Digital Dialogue – AI: Solution or Threat to Mis-/Disinformation?” drove the point home: two scholars Liz Orembo from Research ICT Africa and Admire Mare from the University of Johannesburg, called on civil society organisations to address AI now, as governance advocates, watchdogs, as well as helping to increase media literacy. This is especially needed as there are a number of key elections coming up next year where we will likely see sophisticated disinformation campaigns. Henry Parker from Logically, informed us that there is a lot of potential to use AI to identify disinformation campaigns and reprimand the actors responsible. During “A Sector Conversation”, Stéphane Duguin from CyberPeace Institute warned us that we need to create a comparable countermodel if we wish to increase our capacity to oppose disinformation campaigns. Read their approach to responsible use of artificial intelligence here and watch this space as we are launching our Sector Guidance on Mis-, Dis-, and Mal-information: Insights and Foresights in early 2024.    

Representation Matters
Two sessions, “The Truth is in the Telling” and “Exploring Personal Realities (of Marginalisation)”, delved into the importance of representation. Insights from individuals working with and identifying as members of marginalised communities underscored the need for more direct dialogue with those in power. Nana Afadzinu from WACSI emphasised in “A Sector Conversation” the need for introspection and acknowledgement of systemic inequity. Festus Odingo from the SDG Kenya Forum emphasised the significance of partnerships as a key force for change, emphasising how they may broaden the scope and effect of community-based initiatives. Representation of course also happens through communication pieces – donor reports, flyers, fundraising advertisements and much more. Undeniably, communication about Global North-financed Global South projects has been a big part of manifesting white saviourism and entrenching power imbalances. By now, several organisations have begun to examine this reality and make changes. The Ethical Story Telling Guideline, a toolkit that PATH and Metro Group DRC contributed to, was presented by the speakers. It can assist companies in determining how to, for instance, become more ethical by making concrete adjustments to the planning process. Communication audits, such as the ones conducted every two years by CARE International, can be useful in holding teams accountable and providing incentives for improvement. As part of its bottom-up strategy to alter various communication channels, CARE has made significant efforts to maximise informed consent and minimise unconscious bias. Yet, there are still incredibly difficult dilemmas when organisations must weigh communication subjects’ agency against their safety, for example when portraying female CSO workers in Afghanistan. The emphasis is on respect. A key takeaway from our sessions is to aim to do no harm but failing forward is inevitable as we push one another to improve and recognise ethical storytelling as a fundamental  component of power shifts within the industry. 

Weathering a Perfect Storm
Our speakers highlighted this year a shrinking civic space, humanitarian crises piling up and worsening, colonial structures still fostering inequity, and growing cybercrime and disinformation adding to the complexity. All of this is happening in the face of a challenging global economy with a sharp decline for our causes. Are we experiencing a perfect storm? Yet, for most in the sector, there is a firm resolve to plough on despite difficult circumstances. There is no alternative. It has been inspiring to see among others, leaders from ICVA, CIVICUS, WACSI and the CyberPeace Institute sharing resources, knowledge and honest invitations to collaborate more, helping each other to overcome our deficiencies and capitalise on our respective expertise and strengths.  

To continue surviving the storm, the International Civil Society Centre will keep bringing attention to the incredible innovations that are being developed in the field. As Mirela Shuteriqi from ICVA said in her closing statement, we must also transform ourselves. We must encourage a culture and bring about changes at the UN level, using this as a chance to collaborate and tackle social justice issues. We remain dedicated to facilitating dialogue, sharing innovations, and fostering collaboration within the sector. It is through collective determination, thoughtful introspection, and ethical storytelling that we can face the challenges that lay ahead, transform ourselves, and forge a path towards a more just and equitable future. The journey is ongoing, but together, as a united force, we embark on it with unwavering resolve. 

 

Special thanks to all our speakers – Jennifer Abomnger, Nana Afadzinu, Stéphane Duguin, Patrick Gathara, Arnold Gekonge, Eva Gondor, Heather Hutchings, Wolfgang Jamann, Lysa John, Hussam Joudah, Admire Mare, Shalini Moodley, Patricia Mugenzi, Levis Nderitu, Nana Nwachukwu, Festus Odingo, Elizabeth Orembo, Henry Parker, Neha Rayamajhi, Mirela Shuteriqi, Clare Spurrell, David Verga, and Rachel Wilkinson.

 

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Miriam Niehaus

Head of Programmes

International Civil Society Centre

Miriam leads the Centre’s programmes. She started at the Centre as Executive Assistant in 2014 and then, as Project Manager, developed and implemented the Centre’s projects on civic space between 2016 and 2019. Prior to joining the Centre Miriam worked for VSO International and GIZ in the Palestinian Territories. She holds a BA in Islamic Studies and Social Anthropology from the University of Freiburg and an MA in Near and Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies.

Anticipate, listen patiently, and build a peer network – three lessons from Leading Together

10th July 2023 by Miriam Niehaus

For the first time in four years, the Centre convened its Leading Together conference in person again. Leading Together is our annual space for the global directors of the ICSO divisions of Human Resources, Policy/Advocacy, and Programmes. These groups have parallel peer group discussions as well as joint sessions over topics that concern them all. This year, the Scanning the Horizon community of futures-focused senior sector professionals also joined the group. We were thrilled to welcome participants on our home turf in Berlin and spend 48h learning, debating, and reflecting. The Centre team is busily following up on those 47+ items/ideas/insights generated during the event, and we would also like to share three insights that were key to us:

1. Exercising that anticipatory muscle is challenging, liberating – and necessary 

At Global Perspectives 2022, we heard and stressed how anticipatory capacity in (I)CSOs is a collective muscle we need to exercise constantly. We took this advice and focused peer and joint sessions on this topic: Discussions with Russell Reynolds on the role of leadership and using AI for the good of ICSOs as well as shaping the future through participatory strategy making were sessions where participants engaged with trends and how to “organise futures”. The Policy/Advocacy Directors discussed with David Griffiths, Associate Fellow at Chatham House the future of the Human Rights diplomacy.  

We also really challenged participants with some freshly generated scenarios created in a collective exercise (ParEvo) the Centre has just concluded. Participants had to discuss and reflect on how civil society (organisations) might deal with and shape civil society space after a series of mega-tsunamis hit the world and severed all IT infrastructure.  While some scenarios stretched the goodwill of participants to further consider, the exercise was highlighted by many as important to encourage imagining futures differently. A series of mega-tsunamis will throw the world into disarray (not unlike a global pandemic) and might need primarily our crisis-response capacity. However, spending time on creating long-term visions for different futures can put us as civil society sector professionals in a different kind of driving seat versus racing to manage with futures narratives others – usually more powerful actors – are creating. 

 

2. Taking time for nuance and learning advances us collectively 

What was particularly enriching at this year’s conference was the participants’ willingness to engage in the substance of discussions and openness to critical challenges, and generally a learning mentality. We tried not to gloss over differences with buzzword definitions like “power shift” or “decolonising” but acknowledged the complexity of the matters we deal with and that we may get some things right and others wrong along the journey. Similarly, a joint discussion between the Programme and the Policy/Advocacy directors in exchange with AWID over anti-rights groups and the threat they pose to civic space was exemplary for constructive engagement: Participants brought so much nuance to the discussion and – it might sound like a cliché – embraced the diversity of viewpoints and created patience for understanding our individual or organisational contexts.  These high-quality discussions were incredibly enriching and displayed a high degree of collective responsibility for advancing as a sector.  

 

3. Our organisations are shifting fundamentally – from strategy making to recruitment processes – and peer support may just help keep the head above water 

A few years back someone said “’powershift’ is the water we all swim in”. This was certainly true for Leading Together. In so many sessions participants explored topics that come from our journeys to become organisations that are at least more power-aware or even mirror a decolonised, equitable and just society that we want to see. It was hugely encouraging to see the spread of organisational initiatives and the degree to which ambitions for change are permeating the organisations: to learn from the experience of WaterAid’s participatory strategy making journey, engage with Superrr Lab in what it takes to break western-centred views of futures making. In similar vein, Mission Talent and the cohort of Human Resources directors discussed the challenges and possibilities our changing sector holds to build more diverse organisations; the Programme Directors explored with Comic Relief what ways there are to work differently with bilateral donors to enable more equitable partnerships; and the Policy/Advocacy Directors are already experienced how shifting mandates of ICSOs hold increased expectations for their departments. Senior leaders from the ICSOs are demonstrating resolve and yet acknowledge that these are unchartered waters where peer exchange, inspiration and support is just what you need. 

If you are also an ICSO senior leader and you want to learn more about our offer, do reach out. We already look forward to the next round of Leading Together in 2024 – online – and in-person in 2025!  

 

Miriam Niehaus

Head of Programmes

International Civil Society Centre

Miriam leads the Centre’s programmes. She started at the Centre as Executive Assistant in 2014 and then, as Project Manager, developed and implemented the Centre’s projects on civic space between 2016 and 2019. Prior to joining the Centre Miriam worked for VSO International and GIZ in the Palestinian Territories. She holds a BA in Islamic Studies and Social Anthropology from the University of Freiburg and an MA in Near and Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies.

From LogFrames to Logarithms – A Travel Log

5th June 2023 by Karl Steinacker and Michael Kubach

Karl Steinacker and Michael Kubach are digital experts based in Berlin, Germany. This article is a reflection on their recent teaching assignment, “Digital Transformation and Social Justice”, at the Alice-Salomon University in Berlin, Germany.

During the 1990s, the world of public administrations and civil society organisations (CSOs) was awash with Change Management Teams. In particular, humanitarian and development organisations were, tasked to professionalise their work, to overcome charity and to create impact. The backbone of the process was the introduction of the Logical Framework, or LogFrame. This tool was originally developed for the US military and then adapted by NASA for its space programmes. After it was adopted by USAID and GTZ, an entire nomenclature for the humanitarian and development sectors was built around it: Results Based Management.

Even one of the authors proudly joined a Change Management Team and worked, so the buzzwords at the time, on Modernisation and Innovation. On top of the list of taboo concepts stood the term Welfare. In fact, the task was to implement neo-liberal policies at the level of the people living in extreme poverty. And in this context, the idea of unconditional support to ensure that members of a society can meet basic human needs, such as food and shelter, was simply rejected. The measure of support was not what a society could possibly afford but a revised paradigm of social justice aiming to reward effort and measure effectiveness. Management manuals were updated with an array of re-defined terminology stretching from authority, to responsibility, and most importantly accountability, to ensure compliance by everybody with these new policies.

Our journey into this realm of non-profit business administration would last for many years. The first task was to develop indicators: performance and impact indicators, at times SMART and then KPIs, but most importantly: measurable. Thus, datafication started on Excel sheets. For organisations mandated to protect and assist individuals, group statistics were deemed not to be sufficiently precise anymore. Registration systems had to be changed too: individual registration was to replace all systems that had been developed and used to provide collective support, to families or other groups.

Think tanks and govtech consulting firms were always eager to help for a fee: The digitalisation and the datafication of the social sphere would replace blanket statistical categorisations and allow for a more precise documentation of the individual. This idea of fine tuning corresponds to the sense of justice of many people working in the aid sector: A detailed analysis is much fairer than stereotypical evaluations[1].

While the early days of social statistics were characterized by the attempt to define meaningful categories, the growth of personalized data means that individuals are no longer counted as part of one big class, but increasingly as social-statistical singularities. The use of metrics and algorithms allows previously overlooked, hidden or willfully ignored differences to be identified, and hence utilized.[2]

Twenty-five years on, we find ourselves in a university classroom. Students, soon to enter the job market in the social sector, are confronted with our professional experience as we discuss digital transformation and social justice[3]. But the learning curve is steep for both, students and lecturers. For the latter, having stepped back from limited areas of responsibility in a single set of organisations, the bigger picture emerges: Yes, individual registration is indeed an empowerment tool providing an identity to somebody who is otherwise invisible, excluded, unbanked, and unfit to participate in the society and (digital) economy. However, it also allows for humanitarian[4] and social surveillance – not as an abstract possibility but as an everyday reality.

Today, authorities all over the world are experimenting with predictive algorithms. That sounds technical and innocent but as we dive deeper into the issue, we realise that the real meaning is rather specific: fraud detection systems in social welfare payment systems[5]. In the meantime, the hitherto banned terminology had it’s come back: welfare or social safety nets are, since a couple of years, en vogue again. But in the centuries-old Western tradition, welfare recipients must be monitored and, if necessary, sanctioned, while those who work and contribute must be assured that there is no waste. So it comes at no surprise that even today’s algorithms focus on the prime suspect, the individual fraudster, the undeserving poor.

Fraud detection systems promise that the taxpayer will no longer fall victim to fraud and efficiency gains can be re-directed to serve more people. The true extent of welfare fraud is regularly exaggerated [6]while the costs of such systems is routinely underestimated. A comparison of the estimated losses and investments doesn’t take place. It is the principle to detect and punish the fraudsters that prevail. Other issues don’t rank high either, for example on how to distinguish between honest mistakes and deliberate fraud. And as case workers spent more time entering and analysing data and in front of a computer screen, the less they have time and inclination to talk to real people and to understand the context of their life at the margins of society.

Thus, it can be said that routinely hundreds of thousands of people are being scored. Example Denmark: Here, a system called Udbetaling Danmark was created in 2012 to streamline the payment of welfare benefits. Its fraud control algorithms can access the personal data of millions of citizens, not all of whom receive welfare payments. In contrast to the hundreds of thousands affected by this data mining, the number of cases referred to the Police for further investigation are minute[7]. 

In the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands every year, data of 30,000 welfare recipients is investigated in order to flag suspected welfare cheats. However, an analysis of its scoring system based on machine learning and algorithms showed systemic discrimination with regard to ethnicity, age, gender, and parenthood[8]. It revealed evidence of other fundamental flaws making the system both inaccurate and unfair. What might appear to a caseworker as a vulnerability is treated by the machine as grounds for suspicion. Despite the scale of data used to calculate risk scores, the output of the system is not better than random guesses. However, the consequences of being flagged by the “suspicion machine” can be drastic, with fraud controllers empowered to turn the lives of suspects inside out[9].

As reported by the World Bank, the recent Covid-19 pandemic provided a great push to implement digital social welfare systems in the global South. In fact, for the World Bank the so-called Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), enabling “Digitizing Government to Person Payments (G2Px)”, are as fundamental for social and economic development today as physical infrastructure was for previous generations[10]. Hence, the World Bank finances globally systems modelled after the Indian Aadhaar system, where more than a billion persons have been registered biometrically. Aadhaar has become, for all intents and purposes, a pre-condition to receive subsidised food and other assistance for 800 million Indian citizens.

Important international aid organisations are not behaving differently from states. The World Food Programme alone holds data of more than 40 million people on its Scope data base. Unfortunately, WFP like other UN organisations, is not subject to data protection laws and the jurisdiction of courts. This makes the communities they have worked with particularly vulnerable.

In most places, the social will become the metric, where logarithms determine the operational conduit for delivering, controlling and withholding assistance, especially welfare payments. In other places, the power of logarithms may go even further, as part of trust systems, creditworthiness, and social credit. These social credit systems for individuals are highly controversial as they require mass surveillance since they aim to track behaviour beyond financial solvency. The social credit score of a citizen might not only suffer from incomplete, or inaccurate data, but also from assessing political loyalties and conformist social behaviour.

Hence, the question becomes urgent: what is social justice in a metric society and which role will CSOs play in this emerging environment, what will be their raison d’être?

Indian CSOs chose a pragmatic approach and engaged to ensure that these systems work in favour of those in need. These CSOs have analysed and strategised, on the basis of their principles and values, they endeavour to improve the newly emerging systems. Thus, some are engaged in advocacy, political and even legal battles to ensure that data protection measures are enacted and implemented. Others assist vulnerable individuals to register and to claim their entitlements and turn low-resolution into high–resolution citizens[11]. Yet others engage in educational programmes to teach the users on the new digital environment and their rights therein.

Reflection and discourse might need to go even further and look at transparency and other societal issues, in particular with regard to logarithms. The city of Rotterdam was the only of several cities which agreed to a third party review of the algorithms deployed for fraud prevention purposes. Hence, there is a vast area to be chartered out: from the preservation of confidentiality, copyright and intellectual property rights to the demand for transparency where appropriate.

Lately it has been suggested that anti-racism or decolonisation dimensions will fundamentally change the long-term strategic thinking of important civil society organisations and that this would require developing concrete performance metrics and progress indicators[12]. This shows that the issue will not go away: Should those advocating and working on counter power[13] be using the same methodologies and tools than those currently holding power?

Our own personal story from LogFrame to Logarithms provides a number of lessons. The most important one is to understand the basic concepts underpinning the digital transformation of our societies: Power, social welfare in a market economy, individuals and their identity, and networks and platforms. Accepting that there is no escape room from the megatrend of digital transformation, neither for the individual, nor for the societies we are living in, means that engaging with these new technologies remains imperative. For the organisations that constitute civil society even more is at stake: It’s the race for relevance: Wherever human rights and social justice issues are at stake, whether an organisation focuses on advocacy or service delivery, what is needed are concepts and strategies to actively shape the ongoing transformation based on a clear idea of values and rights. Failing to do so will leave it to the govtech business industry to come up and implement their solutions uninhibitedly.

[1]  Steffen Mau, The Metric Society, 2019, p. 167.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Alice Salomon Hochschule, Berlin, Digital Transformation and Social Justice as part of the ICM programme.

[4] Mark Latonero, Stop Surveillance Humanitarianism, The New York Times, July 11, 2019.

[5] Suspicion Machines – Unprecedented experiment on welfare surveillance algorithm reveals discrimination, in: Lighthouse Reports, 6 March 2023.

[6] Consulting firms talk about welfare fraud up to nearly 5 per cent of benefits spending, while some national auditors’ offices estimate it at between 0.2 and 0.4 per cent. Ibid.

[7] AlgorithmWatch, Automating Society Report 2020, October 2020, pp. 46

[8] Suspicion Machines, see footnote 5 above

[9] Ibid.

[10] World Bank, Identification for Development (ID4D) and Digitalizing G2P Payments (G2Px) 2022 Annual Report (English), p. 2.

[11] Ranjit Singh, Steven Jackson, Seeing Like an Infrastructure: Low-resolution Citizens and the Aadhaar Identification Project, in: Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction Archive Vol. 5, No. CSCW2, Article 315, October 2021,

[12] International Civil Society Centre, Sector Guide #2:Strategic Decision-Making in a Whirly World, July 2021, p. 26,

[13] Democratic Data: Developing Digital Counterpower, a discussion with Salomé Viljoen,

Karl Steinacker

Digital Advisor

International Civil Society Centre

Karl Steinacker is currently the Digital Advisor of the International Civil Society Centre. He studied political science at the Free University of Berlin and international law at Cambridge University. He then spent three decades working for the United Nations (UNDP, UNRWA, DPKO, UNHCR) in the fields of development, peacekeeping and refugee protection. At the UN Refugee Agency, he held positions in Africa and at its Headquarters and was responsible for Registration, Statistics, and Data and Identity Management as well as for Camp Coordination/Camp Management.

Michael Kubach

Digital Expert

Fraunhofer IAO

Since 2013, Michael Kubach has been researching issues around digital identity and trust, where he takes a socioeconomic, user-oriented perspective at the Fraunhofer IAO - Team Identity Management. Michael works/has worked in several European and national cooperative research projects such as the EC-funded projects ESSIF-TRAIN and LIGHTest (on trust infrastructures) and FutureID (federated identity management). Moreover, he is consulting international corporations and NGOs on identity and trust infrastructures as well as blockchain/DLT topics. Michael holds a PhD in economics from Georg-August-University Göttingen. He studied politics and administrative science as well as management in Konstanz, Göttingen and Lille.